NFL playoff picture, clinching scenarios in Week 16: Commanders beat Eagles, eliminate Cowboys and 49ers

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.

Here’s where things stand with Week 16 of the 2024 season underway:

NFC playoff picture

x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: They began Week 16 in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead following the Vikings’ win last Monday night. But things are looking up at the moment after their win in Chicago and Philadelphia’s loss at Washington. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings

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x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East leaders: Rough Sunday. They lost their 10-game winning streak, an opportunity to wrap up the division and fell a game behind Detroit in the race for home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6), NFC South leaders: They embarrassed the Chargers in Week 15, which means – regardless of Atlanta’s triumph Monday night – the Bucs remain atop the division. Seattle’s loss pushed them up a spot, Tampa Bay with a better record (6-3) in conference games than the Rams (5-5). Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

4. Los Angeles Rams (9-6), NFC West leaders: Win out – they beat the Jets on Sunday, which also helped to eliminate the Arizona Cardinals – and they are division champs. LA overtook the Seahawks in Week 15 by virtue of their Week 9 victory at Seattle. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2), wild card No. 1: They clinched a spot in Week 15 thanks to Seattle’s loss. Monday’s victory over Chicago means the Vikes control their own fate in the NFC North – win out, and the division is theirs … and, perhaps, the No. 1 seed, too. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

6. Green Bay Packers (10-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota pretty much relegates the Pack to wild-card status. Win this Monday against New Orleans, and they lock into the postseason field. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (10-5), wild card No. 3: By beating the Eagles on Sunday, they didn’t quite clinch a postseason berth – but they did remain alive in the NFC East while eliminating both the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers from the playoff picture. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6), in the hunt: Their Week 15 loss to Green Bay dropped them not only out of the NFC West lead but from the projected field entirely. But, like the Rams, winning out would ultimately put Seattle atop the division. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

9. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), in the hunt: Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. won his debut Sunday against the lowly Giants. Catch the Bucs, whom the Dirty Birds swept, and they’re back atop the NFC South. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers

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AFC playoff picture

y – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1), AFC West champions: QB Patrick Mahomes weathered Saturday’s win over Houston, which means K.C. gets the No. 1 seed if Buffalo loses Sunday. One more Chiefs win also guarantees the AFC’s Super Bowl path will go through Arrowhead, even if the Bills don’t cooperate. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Broncos

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (11-3), AFC East champions: Their Week 15 win in Detroit probably does more for their collective psyche than it really does for their playoff positioning. Pittsburgh’s recent losses makes the Bills’ second-place standing in the conference more comfortable … as does a very inviting closing stretch. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

x – 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), AFC North leaders: Rough Saturday. First, They fell out of the running for the No. 1 seed by virtue of Kansas City’s win. Then, Pittsburgh fumbled an opportunity to clinch the division. Looks like they’re in a dogfight the rest of the way with Baltimore, which appears to have the more favorable schedule to close the regular season. The Steelers retain first place in the division – for now – by virtue of a one-game lead over the Ravens in AFC games, i.e., not much at all. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

y – 4. Houston Texans (9-6), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year but are just about locked in as the fourth seed … which would mean a tough wild-card matchup, very likely against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Titans

x – 5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5), wild card No. 1: What a Christmas present. They clinched their postseason spot, averted a Pittsburgh AFC North crown, are now very much alive themselves to win the division … and might have recaptured the Super Bowl form they showed earlier in the season. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Browns

6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), wild card No. 2: By sweeping the Broncos for the first time in 14 years, they prevented Denver from clinching Thursday while leapfrogging their division rivals and picking up the season tiebreaker (by virtue of the sweep). One more win locks Bolts into the field. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (9-6), wild card No. 3: They had a win-and-in scenario Thursday to stamp their first postseason trip since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago. Now, they can’t get in this weekend, though one more win will advance the Broncos to the playoffs. But major trouble ahead if they lose to Cincinnati in Week 17. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8), in the hunt: Still technically alive after beating the Titans on Sunday … and ahead of Cincy based on a better record (6-5) in AFC games. Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Jaguars

9. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8), in the hunt: Still technically alive after beating the Browns on Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Steelers

10. Miami Dolphins (6-8), in the hunt: After Week 15’s loss at Houston, it’s basically over. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets