NFLNFLWith more than 10 different windows to watch in Week 17, here’s how you should bet on Christmas Day
Getty Images/Ringer illustration
By Anthony DabbundoDec. 24, 5:18 pm UTC • 5 min
Entering the penultimate week of the regular season, nine teams have clinched their spots in the NFL playoffs, and there is a possibility that the entire 14-team field will be set by Sunday evening. The league has aimed to dominate the national television schedule as much as possible over the years, and Week 17 feels like the pinnacle of that goal.
There are eight stand-alone games this week: the Wednesday doubleheader on Christmas, Thursday Night Football, a Saturday triple-header, and a regular Sunday slate, followed by a game on Monday night. There are 10 different windows of football watching this week, creating a perfect time to either avoid your family altogether or spend time with them watching the NFL.
I’ll be previewing the Week 17 slate in two parts; the first will feature only the Wednesday and Thursday games. The second part will be out on Friday to look at the rest of the slate.
All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday morning.
Pittsburgh has played its past two games shorthanded without wide receiver George Pickens, safety DeShon Elliott, and defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi. All three missed the past two games due to injury, and corner Donte Jackson didn’t play in the Week 15 loss to Baltimore. All four are expected to return for this game, which is crucial for Pittsburgh’s chances of winning the AFC North. A loss on Wednesday would hand control of the division to the Ravens.
The Steelers are likely to be without corner Joey Porter Jr., who left Saturday’s game with a knee injury. Pickens’s injury completely took away the Steelers offense’s explosiveness, and the attrition of the defense due to injuries meant that both Philadelphia and Baltimore had a ton of success offensively against the Steelers. Philadelphia had the ball for almost 40 minutes, and the Ravens averaged 8.3 yards per play.
In theory, this would be a dream spot to back Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have traditionally been excellent at home as an underdog coming off a loss. However, there’s such a massive gulf in the play-to-play consistency of the Steelers and Chiefs offenses that it’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh finding enough explosives to overcome that.
Offensive success rate:
Kansas City: Third
Pittsburgh: 26th
Third-down success rate:
Kansas City: First
Pittsburgh: 13th
NFL Week 16 in Review
NFL Week 16 in Review
The Steelers won’t be able to run the ball effectively on early downs against the Chiefs’ excellent run defense. That means Russell Wilson will be in third down often, and he’ll likely face a lot of pressure. I still have major questions about the Chiefs secondary overall, and since Wilson has been good against the blitz this year, this game could involve more offense than you’d anticipate.
Wilson’s averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and has had four touchdowns and no interceptions when blitzed this year. The total for this game was 43 but has been bet up to 44.5. It’s just a lean for me on the over, but I bet the Chiefs at -2.5 or better and would bet their moneyline at -160 or better.
It’s time for Kansas City to wrap up the no. 1 seed, and Patrick Mahomes’s innate ability to excel on high-leverage third downs and in late-game situations will overcome the Steelers’ usual close-game voodoo.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs -2.5 (-115) or Chiefs moneyline (-160 or better).
The Texans don’t have much incentive to show their best plays in this game. They are locked into either the 3- or 4-seed and are likely to face Baltimore in the playoffs. Houston should focus on its players’ health and keeping its best schemes off opponents’ film. It’s probable that the Texans will rest their starters in Week 18, treating Week 17 as their last dress rehearsal before the playoffs.
The market has finally started to notice the Texans’ flaws. If you read this column weekly, you know that I’ve been against the Texans more than any other team this year. The spread opened at Baltimore -3 but was bet up to -5.5 in most sportsbooks by Tuesday.
Houston’s defensive metrics are good this year, and they’ve had solid performances against the Bills, Packers, and Lions. The issue lies with the offense, especially after Tank Dell’s injury. The receiving corps is limited, with Nico Collins standing out. The addition of Diontae Johnson off waivers doesn’t inspire much confidence in their current talent group.
The Baltimore secondary was the primary cause of its defensive issues in the first half of the season, but there are signs that the unit is turning a corner. The Ravens started the season with Kyle Hamilton at different positions. Since movinge Hamilton exclusively to safety, the defense has improved. Baltimore’s defense ranks 26th in expected points added per dropback for the season but has been eighth in the same metric since Week 10.
Baltimore is second offensively in EPA per drive and has a balanced and explosive unit. Houston ranks 23rd, and given how difficult it is to run the ball against Baltimore, C.J. Stroud will likely find himself in third-and-long situations often.
This is the kind of game that could get away from the Texans, given how little it matters to them and how offensively limited they are.
Verdict: Bet Baltimore spread -5.5 (-110) and sprinkle some alternate spread -9.5 (+172) and -13.5 (+270).
The Seahawks’ chances in the NFC West took a major hit with consecutive home losses to the Packers and Vikings. If Seattle wins all its remaining games, it would still need either a Rams loss to Arizona this week or an unlikely scenario where it can flip the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. The odds of the SOV flip are pretty slim. As a result, the Seahawks’ most important game this week is not their own, but the Cardinals-Rams game on Saturday.
The Bears had another terrible first-half performance in a divisional home game against Detroit last week.
Here are the Bears’ last four first halves:
- Down 16-0 to Detroit on Thanksgiving
- Down 24-0 to San Francisco in the first game with an interim coach
- Down 13-0 at home to Minnesota
- Down 27-14 at home to Detroit
Chicago did manage to score on its final two offensive possessions against the Lions on Sunday to finally get some first-half points on the board, but the Bears’ incompetence in preparing for these games is stunning.
Chicago enters this game ranked 31st in EPA per play on third down, and it faces a Seahawks defense that ranks second in third-down EPA defense. It’s a bad situational spot for a rookie head coach to go on the road in a short week, so I’m a little skeptical about betting on the Seahawks in this spot.
I’ll be waiting to see whether a -3 line comes up before wagering on this game.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks -3.5, bet at -3.
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on ‘The Ringer Gambling Show,’ mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on ‘The Ringer’s Philly Special.’ Also: Go Orange.
