For the second straight game, Ohio State enters its College Football Playoff matchup as the lower seed but the betting favorite. The Buckeyes, who won their first two postseason games by a combined 46 points, are six-point favorites over Texas.
The Longhorns are eager to take the next step after losing in the CFP semifinals last year to Washington while Ohio State has had a “natty or bust” attitude since putting its roster together in the offseason.
There won’t be a lack of talent on the field, with both teams being led by their stout defenses.
Ohio State’s defense ranks No. 1 nationally and has been especially dominant since its loss to Oregon on Oct. 12. Texas’ defense ranks third and has allowed 14 points or fewer in nine of its 15 games.
Texas doesn’t appear to be bothered by being the underdog despite playing a de facto home game just three hours away from Austin.
“I think we could all agree what coach (Ryan) Day has done, their team, them coming out of that Michigan game and what they’ve been able to do since the playoffs have started has been tremendous,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “I could probably poll everybody in this room and you’d probably all agree, they’re the favorite to win the game, and that’s OK. But that’s football. That’s sports. That’s why we have to do what we do. So I’m not going to back off of what I said. The reality is the reality.”
The winner will play Notre Dame in the national championship game on Jan. 20.
What’s at stake for Texas
After losing in the semifinals of last year’s Playoff, Sarkisian and the Longhorns made it clear that they intended to not only get back there but go at least a step further and play for a national championship. They’re one win away from their first title game since the 2009 season. It would be a disappointment, but not a disaster if the season ended here.
Ohio State is the favorite because the Buckeyes are red-hot and have a loaded roster. Texas’ roster is of a similar talent level, but the Longhorns haven’t consistently played to their capability in the second half of the season. If they’re to pull the upset, they’ll have to correct that and put forth a complete effort. — Khan
What’s at stake for Ohio State
The only thing Ohio State has on its mind is a national championship. The celebration after the Rose Bowl didn’t last long because the Buckeyes knew Texas was next up. Though the Longhorns are talented, this Ohio State team expects to be playing in the national championship game. A defeat would be crushing for a team that lost to Michigan and didn’t win a Big Ten title this season. — Teague Robinson
Three players to watch for Texas
1. Cam Williams, offensive tackle: The right tackle missed Texas’ quarterfinal win over Arizona State with a knee sprain, but he’ll play against the Buckeyes, Sarkisian said Thursday. How healthy is he? The Longhorns will need his best effort against Ohio State defensive end Jack Sawyer, who is third in the Big Ten in hurries with 32, per Pro Football Focus. Williams, viewed as a potential first-round NFL Draft pick if he declares after this season, has allowed a team-high 21 pressures in 2024, per PFF.
2. Jahdae Barron, defensive back: The Thorpe Award winner will play a massive role in this one as Texas tries to slow down Ohio State’s explosive receiving corps. Of the 1,054 snaps Barron has played this season, 630 have come at outside corner, 123 have come in the slot and 134 have been in the box. How will the Longhorns deploy him? Will they line up him one-on-one with Jeremiah Smith? Will that fall instead on Malik Muhammad (with potential double-team help from a safety) and have Barron go up against Emeka Egbuka? Will he play all over the field, as he often does? No matter the defensive strategy, Barron will be a critical piece of it.
3. Quinn Ewers, quarterback: If the Longhorns are to win this game, they need a big-time performance from Ewers, akin to what he delivered against Michigan earlier this year or at Alabama last year. Ewers can look like one of the best in the country at times, flashing his elite physical tools, but he also can be inconsistent, hitting midgame lulls or throwing inaccurate deep shots. He’ll need to be as sharp as possible against the Buckeyes. — Khan
Three players to watch for Ohio State
1. Jeremiah Smith, wide receiver: The freshman is making an argument for being the best receiver in the country. He has 13 catches, 290 yards and four touchdowns in two Playoff games and has shown off every part of his game — speed, contested-catch ability and route running. The Florida native has become Will Howard’s favorite target because the quarterback knows Smith will come down with the ball if he just gets it near him.
2. J.T. Tuimoloau, defensive end: Tuimoloau, Ohio State’s best pass rusher, will have a huge matchup against tackle Kelvin Banks, a first-round talent. Banks has allowed just one sack and nine pressures this season while Tuimoloau has recorded 10 sacks, including four in two Playoff games. Ohio State wants to pressure Ewers but won’t blitz every play, so it will need Tuimoloau to win his share of the battles with Banks. If he can make a big impact, Tuimoloau will help send Ohio State to the national championship game while also raising his draft stock.
3. Caleb Downs, safety: A Thorpe Award finalist, Downs is the best defensive player on Ohio State’s roster. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has made an effort to get Downs closer to the line of scrimmage, and it’s paid off. He has 72 tackles, including 11 for loss, and also has been a factor on special teams with a punt return for a touchdown. — Robinson
Texas key to the game
Get the running game going. When Texas runs the ball effectively, Sarkisian’s offense — which is heavy on play-action passing — operates so much better. The four games that Texas had its lowest rush totals were its toughest: the two losses to Georgia, the double-overtime win over Arizona State and a 27-24 win over Vanderbilt. The offensive line needs to open holes and Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue need to eat up chunks of yards as much as possible. — Khan
Ohio State’s key to the game
Make things difficult for Ewers. Pressuring him is the easy answer because he has struggled at times this year with it. But more than that, Ohio State has to disguise its coverages. He’s a good quarterback, especially when he can stand comfortably in the pocket and make throws based on his pre-snap reads. Ohio State will have to mix things up in the secondary. Keeping Ewers off balance should help the defense settle in because I don’t expect Texas’ run game to make a major impact in this game. — Robinson
Predictions
Ohio State 24, Texas 14
These are the two best defenses in the country. I expect a relatively low-scoring game. The offensive playmakers for Ohio State will do just enough while Knowles and the Buckeyes defense will cause havoc for Ewers. — Robinson
Ohio State 34, Texas 27
The Buckeyes are playing their best ball and are the most talented, most complete team the Longhorns have seen all season. Texas hasn’t been consistent enough for me to believe they’ll put it all together for four quarters to pull this one out. — Khan
(Photos of Quinn Ewers, Will Howard: Jerome Miron, Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
