We picked the Commanders last week to make the Super Bowl, and we are going to need a lot of Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin magic. Because there is no reason to think, or even dream, that the Lions won’t score a lot of points. The Commanders don’t have a very good run defense, and the Lions get David Montgomery back to pair with Jahmyr Gibbs.
Don’t even get us started on the passing game. Jared Goff and company are the best team in the league throwing against man coverage, and it’s not even close. They are No. 1 in EPA/dropback — 59 percent success, 8.9 yards per attempt, 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions — by a large margin. When the Commanders played man (26 percent of the time), they ranked 25th or worse in opponent completion percentage (60 percent) and yards per attempt (7.5) while giving up 17 touchdowns, second most in the NFL during the regular season. Against Washington’s man coverage last week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield went 7-of-8 for 80 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Holy crap.
That’s OK. We’re still on this hill with Daniels and McLaurin. The Lions, who are the walking wounded on defense, have not fared well with scrambling quarterbacks all season. They are 2-2 (13-0 otherwise) against Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson and Josh Allen, giving up an average of 52 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns overall.
It gets better. McLaurin led all receivers in yards gained on go routes (387), while the Lions have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game on targeted go routes (42.8). Olamide Zaccheaus has also come on as of late, and the Lions aren’t great with slot receivers, either.
I am not second-guessing myself this time. Give me the points.
The pick: Commanders (+9.5)
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