Texans vs. Chiefs takeaways: Mahomes-Kelce return to championship formula

The Chiefs‘ hopes for the NFL’s first-ever three-peat are still alive.

For the Texans, meanwhile, climbing out of the divisional round remains insurmountable.

Kansas City topped Houston 23-14 in the AFC divisional round Saturday to advance to its seventh straight conference championship game. Next weekend, the Chiefs will host the winner of Sunday night’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.

With Saturday’s loss, the Texans dropped to 0-6 all time in the divisional round.

Here’s what we learned about the Chiefs and Texans on Saturday:

Chiefs: We can talk about why the Bills look like so much of a force this season, with Josh Allen playing out of this world. We can discuss how the Ravens just seem different this year, because they have Derrick Henry to take pressure off of Lamar Jackson. In the NFC, we can look at the potential of the Lions (even with a decimated defense) or the Eagles.

But make no mistake about it: These Chiefs should still be the Super Bowl favorites.

They showed why in Saturday’s divisional-round win on two fronts: 1) their elite defense and 2) the Patrick Mahomes–Travis Kelce connection, which is (still) inevitable. It’s the same formula that won them the Lombardi Trophy last season.

Steve Spagnuolo’s defense operated at a high level against the Texans, with both four-man fronts and blitzes. The Chiefs sacked quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times with six different players: George Karlaftis (3), Chamarri Conner (1), Charles Omenihu (1), Chris Jones (1), Felix Anudike-Uzomah (1) and Tershawn Wharton (1). It’s notable because Kansas City wasn’t exactly a dominant pass-rushing team during the regular season. The Chiefs ranked 18th in pressure rate and sacks (tied), 15th in pressures and 22nd in sack rate, according to Next Gen Stats. All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones had just five sacks, his lowest total since 2016, when he was a rookie. The strength of these Chiefs throughout the year has been in coverage.

Maybe you take overwhelming the Texans’ protection with a grain of salt — Stroud was the second-most sacked quarterback during the regular season, after all — but Kansas City playing this dominant upfront in the biggest game of the year (to this point) bodes well for the conference championship game. Momentum is a very real thing in football.

Then offensively, Mahomes and Kelce worked their magic, like we’ve seen too many times to count over the past several years. Mahomes completed seven of his eight targets to Kelce, who had 117 receiving yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown (on a falling throw from Mahomes). Kelce’s 49-yard catch and run in the second quarter set up the Chiefs’ first score, too.

This year’s Kansas City team is much like last year’s in that it isn’t always pretty. With the conclusion of the divisional round, the Chiefs still haven’t scored more than 30 points this season. Long gone, it seems, are the Chiefs of the early Mahomes era, when a more “attractive” brand of football was played.

But Kansas City has this new DNA drilled down.

It’s carrying over from last season.

Texans: Houston needs to go back to the drawing board on offense.

Yes, the offensive line needs work. Stroud on Saturday was sacked a career-high eight times (regular season and playoffs), continuing the trend of poor pass protection from the regular season. But the Texans’ issues go much deeper than that.

They scored just 14 points in the biggest game of the season. Before last week’s wild-card win over the Chargers (which was led by the defense), they hadn’t touched 30 points since mid-November. Scoring was one of many key offensive metrics in which they ranked average or below average. That’s on top of execution and playcalling issues that showed up throughout the year.

Many of these problems were present even when Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were healthy, but Houston will also need to figure out the future of the receiver room. The timing and nature of Dell’s devastating knee injury in Week 16 puts his 2025 season in jeopardy. Diggs, who turns 32 next season, is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent. Nico Collins is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver and Dalton Schultz is a quality pass-catching tight end, but the Texans will need more to help Stroud, who isn’t immune to the Texans’ offensive issues in 2024.

Houston had a championship-caliber defense this season, and the unit’s trajectory under coach DeMeco Ryans should remain positive. But if the Texans can’t find a way to take a major step forward offensively in 2025, they’ll remain a rung below teams like the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills in the AFC.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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