Not much went the way the Buffalo Bills were hoping in Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season. Not only did the Bills lose to the Los Angeles Rams, snapping their seven-game win streak, but the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers both won their games.
While the Bills have the AFC East locked down, their playoff seed is still very much in question. With their loss last week, they’ve fallen two games behind the Chiefs for the one seed. They now also find themselves in a tie with Pittsburgh for the two seed — something that would guarantee them at least two home games in the playoffs (dependent on them winning the first, of course).
As of now, the Bills have the advantage in tie-breaker scenarios with both the Chiefs and Steelers. Since they don’t have a head-to-head game with Pittsburgh this season, that tie-breaker advantage is very marginal and can swing either way from week to week, so it’s important that Buffalo gets back in the win column quickly.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the AFC Playoff picture looks like as we enter Week 15. Who should Bills Mafia be rooting for this weekend? Read on below…
AFC East Standings heading into Week 15
The Bills can’t fall, the Jets and Patriots are out. All that’s left to be decided in the AFC East is if Miami can find a hidden passage into the playoffs or if they join the Jets and Patriots, watching Buffalo from home once again. Of course, there’s always the “who will be the basement dweller” scenario to watch here too — because the Jets and Patriots look like they may battle it out with the winner getting a better 2025 NFL Draft position.
AFC Playoff Picture heading into Week 15
AFC EAST Week 15 Bills rooting interests and ideal outcomes
Buffalo Bills (10-3) over Detroit Lions (12-1), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)
The Bills need to stay ahead of the Steelers and the Texans. With the Chiefs securing the AFC West title last week, we no longer need to worry about what the Broncos and Chargers are doing as they can’t move to the top tier of playoff teams with Buffalo. However, staying ahead of both Houston and Pittsburgh needs to be the focus.
A loss on Sunday would mean that the Bills no longer control that two-seed spot — they would have to hope for a Steelers loss. The Lions aren’t going to be an easy target, but neither were the Chiefs, yet Buffalo got the job done. Let’s hope they can do the same this weekend. Go Bills!
New York Jets (3-10) over Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10), Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
Yes, we’re rooting for the divisional opponent this week. Buffalo beat both the Jets and the Jags, which means this game won’t do anything for their SOV score… yet. But should the Jets win on Sunday, plus pull off another win next week, and then lose in Orchard Park, NY in two weeks, it will.
Maybe more realistically, we can root against the Jets getting a better draft position come April. However you want to look at it, a Jets win is better than a Jacksonville win this week.
Miami Dolphins (6-7) over Houston Texans (8-5), Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
Again, we’re rooting for a division rival, and it’s okay. The Dolphins can’t usurp the Bills, and their only way into the playoffs is to watch a host of other teams fall apart in the final four weeks of the season. The more important thing to focus on this week is that Texans are only two games behind the Bills and they have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If Buffalo falters again this week, it would be great to keep that two-game cushion in play. If the Bills come home victorious, a Houston loss would put the Bills a win away from being able to forget that disappointing Week 5 outcome.
Arizona Cardinals (6-7) over New England Patriots (3-10), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)
Yes, the Bills will probably beat the Patriots next week, which would make this game’s SOV a draw no matter who wins. But it’s not a definite. So we’re going to go with what we know: Buffalo beat Arizona, and a Cardinals win would boost their SOV (something they need in order to stay ahead of Pittsburgh).
NFL Week 15 Bills rooting interests
Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. EST (Prime Video)
Los Angeles Rams 12, San Francisco 49ers 6
This game didn’t end in the Bills’ favor. A win by the 49ers would have helped Buffalo’s SOV score, while a win by the Rams didn’t. It does, however, increase their SOS score — but it’s unlikely that the NFL is going to have to go that far down their list of “ways to break a tie” to determine playoff seeding.
Sunday Afternoon Games
Cleveland Browns (3-10) over Kansas City Chiefs (12-1), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Tennessee Titans (3-10) over Cincinnati Bengals (5-8), 1 p.m. (FOX)
New York Giant (2-11) over Baltimore Ravens (8-5), 1 p.m. (CBS)
New Orleans Saints (5-8) over Washington Commanders (8-5) 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
Indianapolis Colts (6-7) over Denver Broncos (8-5), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) over Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3), 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) over Los Angeles Chargers (8-5), 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
The games in bold could have a direct impact on Buffalo’s playoff seeding, while the other games are all about Strength of Victory should the other two games not go the Bills’ way.
Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. EST (NBC)
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) over Green Bay Packers (9-4)
This is another of those SOV games for the Bills. Buffalo beating Seattle back in Week 8 could be that much bigger should the Seahawks get to 9 wins this week. More wins for teams the Bills beat means more advantages for Buffalo in the event of a season-ending tie.
ESPN Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m.
Chicago Bears (4-9) at Minnesota Vikings (11-2)
The Bears lost to the Texans. While Houston has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo, a weird three-way-tie scenario could come into play should the Bills slip too much in the next four weeks. In that case, SOV could matter for the Texans.
So, root for the Bears. But, if you (like me) aren’t too worried about Buffalo’s final three weeks of play, a Vikings loss helps the Bills in April’s draft. So, choose your point of view on this one.
Games that don’t matter to the Bills
Dallas Cowboys (5-8) at Carolina Panthers (3-10), 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
This game would only matter in the event of a three-way tie involving some combination of Buffalo with either Kansas City, Houston, Baltimore, and any other team. Yeah, not likely.
But if you absolutely need advice on who to root for, go with the Panthers — they lost to both the Texans and the Ravens. Unless you think the Bills, Steelers, and Kansas City will end up tied — then go with the Cowboys. Or just ignore this game — because that’s likely what will happen at the end of the season.
NFL tiebreaker scenarios and the Buffalo Bills
As a reminder, here is how the NFL breaks ties in the standings:
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best net points in common games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
So, the Bills could, potentially, be looking at ties with the following teams at the end of the season: Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, and Steelers. Sure, the possibility of one of either the Chargers or Broncos moving up exists, but they would have to knock KC out of first place in the AFC West for that to happen, and, well, that’s just not too realistic. Using the above chart, here’s how the Bills are doing:
- BUF ties KC — Tiebreaker goes to BUF (head-to-head win)
- BUF ties HOU — Tiebreaker goes to HOU (head-to-head loss)
- BUF ties BAL — Tiebreaker goes to BAL (head-to-head loss)
- BUF ties PIT — Tiebreaker goes to BUF — for now (this will flux and change over the next several weeks, which is why we’re watching this closely)
- The Bills and Steelers do not face off , so that takes scenario 1 off the table
- Scenario 2 — Conference Record: Currently tied at 7-2. Buffalo has three more conference games to play (NE, NY, NE) to end the season while the Steelers have both the Ravens and the Chiefs still on their schedule.
- Scenario 3 — Common Games: They have both beat the Jets. Buffalo beat the Colts while Pittsburgh beat the Ravens. So, they both sit at .500 in the win-loss of common games. However, the Steelers will play the Chiefs in Week 16, so plenty left to play.
- Scenario 6 — Strength of Victory: Just in case the Bills and Steelers end up tied at the end of the season and they both have the same number of conference wins, this could be a factor. Buffalo’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 did a lot to boost their score here. Currently the Bills opponents have a combined 52 wins while the Steelers’ opponents have only piled up 50. Wins by either team could heavily swing this score. Let’s hope it’s in Buffalo’s favor.
Optimistic AFC Standings heading into Week 16
- Chiefs (12-2)
- Bills (11-3)
- Steelers (10-4)
- Texans (8-6)
- Ravens (8-6)
- Chargers (8-6)
- Broncos (8-6)
- Colts (7-7)
- Dolphins (7-7)
- Bengals (5-9)
- Browns (4-10) – eliminated
- Jets (4-10) – eliminated
- Titans (4-10) – eliminated
- Patriots (4-10) – eliminated
- Jaguars (3-11) – eliminated
- Raiders (2-12) – eliminated
Now we know who to root for, who to root against, and what games to keep tabs on during Week 15 while we all enjoy a stress-free weekend of football.
Go Bills!
