THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME BETWEEN THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AND WASHINGTON COMMANDERS IS NIGH.
Sorry for yelling at you in all caps but, hey, it’s kind of a big deal.
Let’s run through some of top things to watch out for in this high-stakes NFC East rivalry matchup.
1 – Is Jalen Hurts going to be hampered?
Hurts suffered what appeared to be a painful left knee injury in the Eagles’ win over the Los Angeles Rams last weekend.
Here’s a look at his pre- and post-injury splits with him getting hurt at 3:51 left in the third quarter.
PRE-INJURY
PASSING
12/17, 109 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 5 sacks for -43 yards
RUNNING
6 runs for 70 yards, 1 TD
POST-INJURY
PASSING
3/3, 19 yards, 2 sacks for -20 yards and a safety
RUNNING
Zero runs (except for one QB kneel to run out the clock)
Hurts was seen limping around after the win. He was listed as limited on the Eagles’ estimated Wednesday injury report before being upgraded to full go on Thursday and Friday. Hurts told reporters he will likely be wearing a brace on his knee for Sunday’s game.
For what it’s worth, Hurts’ coaches and teammates have had nothing but encouraging things to say about the quarterback’s outlook. There’s also a report that Hurts has looked “very mobile” and he’s been throwing the ball in practice “better than he has in weeks.”
Of course, we won’t know for sure if he’s significantly hampered or not until we see him in game action.
The expectation here is that the Eagles will not be scared to let Hurts run the ball. Neither Hurts nor the coaching staff want to entirely scrap that element from the offense. We previously saw how the Commanders were really able to key in on Saquon Barkley after they didn’t have to respect the QB run game with Kenny Pickett replacing an injured Hurts back in Week 16.
Some numbers on that point via NFL Pro:
Saquon Barkley started his Week 16 game with 109 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on his first 7 carries (99 yards before contact), but was limited to just 41 rushing yards on his final 22 carries (-4 yards before contact). The Commanders adjusted their defensive strategy after Jalen Hurts was injured and left the game, aligning with a single-high safety shell on 40 of the final 59 plays (67.8%) after doing so on just 3 of the first 12 plays (25.0%). Barkley recorded just 3 successful carries and 28 rushing yards on 18 carries against single-high safety shells, compared to 5 successful runs and 117 rushing yards against two-high shells.
At the same time, it’s not like the reasonable expectation is that this will be a career game for Hurts’ rushing numbers.
There’s been some thought that Hurts’ injury could actually work in his favor as a passer. If he’s unable to rely on his normal mobility, he might be forced to get rid of the ball faster and make quicker decisions. Perhaps! We’ll see.
The belief here is that he’s capable of a big passing performance. We certainly haven’t seen those numbers from him recently … but we have seen him do it before. And I’d be wary of betting against him in a big-time spot like this.
2 – Is Cam Jurgens starting?
And, if so, can he make it through the game?
Jurgens was officially ruled questionable to play on the final injury report. There are reportedly some signs that point to him suiting up … but we won’t know for sure until inactives are announced at 1:30 PM Eastern on Sunday.
Even if Jurgens DOES play, two questions remain:
1) Can he make it through the game?
2) Can he play well?
No injury is ever a good one but a back issue seems especially bad.
Jurgens may have been significantly hampered by his back injury last weekend. He graded out very poorly in pass protection against the Rams; Pro Football Focus marked him down with a team-high four pressures allowed on 17 true pass sets.
If Jurgens can’t play or has to leave early, Landon Dickerson figures to shift over to center with Tyler Steen filling in at left guard.
Dickerson logged 20 starts at center in college but he’s been limited to just 42 NFL snaps at that position. Steen has been up and down as a fill-in player this season.
Jurgens or no Jurgens, the Eagles’ offensive line needs to play better than they did last week.
The Eagles offensive line struggled on Sunday against the Rams, which each starter allowing at least 4 pressures and 1.0 sacks during the game. It was the first time all 5 starting offensive lineman for the Eagles had allowed 4+ pressures since Week 15, 2020.
3 – Can the Commanders stop Saquon Barkley?
No.
Saquon is unstoppable.
The Commanders will try their hardest. But their run defense isn’t good:
- Only six teams allowed more yards per rush attempt this season.
- Only three teams allowed more rushing yards to running backs this season.
- The Commanders rank 27th in run defense EPA, 24th in run defense success rate, and 26th in run defense DVOA.
And it could be even worse with starting defensive tackle Daron Payne ruled out of Sunday’s game.
Big loss for the Commanders. On first-and-10 runs this year with Payne on the field, the Commanders had a 64.4% Success Rate on defense, which was about average.
Over 97 first-and-10 carries without Payne, that dropped to 51.6%, which was last in the league. https://t.co/IA8g2tvx6c
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 25, 2025
For perspective… if you were wondering why Tampa Bay was getting strapped in the run game but then you saw Bucky Irving take tf off in the second half for a stretch, it was at that time that Payne broke his finger and came out for a little while. That was Tampa.
— Jamual (@LetMualTellit) January 25, 2025
In the Wild Card round, rookie Bucky Irving had 17 carries for 77 yards (4.5 average) against the Commanders. Last weekend, Jahmyr Gibbs had 14 carries for 105 yards (7.5 average) and two touchdowns against the Commanders.
Barkley is obviously better than those players. There’s every reason to believe he can have yet another good game against this defense.
Via NFL Pro:
Saquon Barkley recorded the 6th-highest explosive run rate (13.3%) among running backs with at least 150 carries this season. Barkley also gained 2.4 yards before contact per carry, the 2nd-highest mark among that same group of running backs. Across two playoff games, Barkley has produced 5 explosive runs, including two touchdowns (62 yards, 78 yards) in the Divisional Round win against the Rams.
Matchup: The Commanders allowed the 2nd-highest explosive run rate (13.2%) and the most yards before contact per carry (1.9) to running backs this season. Across their two regular season matchups, the Commanders allowed 197 yards before contact to Barkley (3.6 YBC per carry), including 6 explosive runs.
4 – Can the Eagles slow down Jayden Daniels?
Daniels has obviously been awesome in the playoffs. He’s completed 69.7% of his passes for 567 yards (8.6 average), 4 TD, 0 INT, and a 116.2 passer rating. He’s also picked up 87 rushing yards on 29 carries.
This is unprecedented success, via NFL Pro:
Jayden Daniels is the first rookie quarterback to have multiple playoff games with multiple passing touchdowns, and his 116.2 playoff passer rating is the best by a rookie quarterback in a postseason in NFL history.
Daniels is really, really good. We saw him get the best of the Eagles back in Week 16.
Rookies are 0-5 all-time in conference championship games. But this is no typical rookie.
5 – Does Vic Fangio need to go against conventional wisdom in defending Jayden Daniels?
Out of curiosity, I looked up Fangio’s track record in “threematches.”
Despite his long career, Fangio’s only faced a single team three times in one season twice before (counting as a defensive coordinator or head coach).
His teams went 0-2 in those games, so, the Eagles are clearly doomed.
2000 – Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator – OT loss to Miami Dolphins, defense allowed 434 yards (second most of Indy’s season) and 23 points
2013 – San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator – Loss to Seahawks, defense allowed 308 yards and 23 points
These performances probably don’t mean that much as it relates to this Sunday. But since I’m paid by the word, I simply had to include this info.
To make it up to you, here’s some potentially more relevant history:
Vic Fangio has coached 25 games against rookie quarterbacks over the past 14 NFL seasons. Here are the results: Record: 17-8Average points allowed by his defenses: 18.4
Some positive numbers ahead of facing Jayden Daniels tomorrow
— Drew Balis (@drewBbalis) January 25, 2025
Given how differently the approaches in the first two games went, it’ll be pretty interesting to see how Fangio plans to attack this Commanders offense.
Seems like there’s a clear takeaway from the last game: don’t make a habit of blitzing Daniels.
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 23, 2025
More data via NFL Pro:
The Eagles blitzed Jayden Daniels on just 5 of his 11 dropbacks in their first meeting in Week 11, his lowest blitz rate faced in a game in his career (12.5%). However in their second matchup, the Eagles dialed up the heat, sending their 2nd-highest blitz rate (35.6%) in a game this season. The Eagles have gotten pressure on over half of their blitzes against Daniels this season (52.4%), but came away with just 1 sack. Despite the pressure, Daniels has taken advantage of less coverage defenders by completing 11 of 17 passes against the blitz for 193 yards & 3 touchdowns. The Eagles have struggled to pressure Daniels without blitzing across both matchups, recording just a 20.3% pressure rate.
Jayden Daniels completed 6 of 13 passes under pressure for 162 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception in Week 16. He also gained 39 rushing yards on 3 scrambles when pressured. That translated to +11.2 EPA under pressure, the 4th-most by a rookie in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Daniels struggled to move the ball when he was not under pressure, however, averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per attempt on non-pressured dropbacks.
Kinda weird, right?
Pressuring the quarterback is normally a recipe for success. But maybe dedicating more resources to coverage instead is the right move against Daniels?
6 – Will Jalen Carter be a game-wrecker?
The Eagles are in the NFC Championship Game thanks to Carter absolutely taking over on the Rams’ final drive. The second-year All-Pro defensive tackle had an awesome game.
The Eagles need another massive game from Carter in this spot. He should be primed to dominate with the Commanders now missing their best offensive lineman, Sam Cosmi.
Carter and Cosmi had some good battles in the first two Eagles-Commanders games. But now it looks like it’ll be journeyman Trent Scott getting the start at right guard.
Scott is no Cosmi:
It’s also possible the Commanders could shift Andrew Wylie inside and have Cornelius Lucas play right tackle.
Regardless, Carter must be a force to be reckoned with. His excellent conditioning could be further tested by the Commanders’ penchant for utilizing tempo.
7 – Could fourth down aggression be the difference?
As BGN’s Dave Mangels wrote about earlier this week, Nick Sirianni is middle of the pack in “go rate,” and Commanders head coach Dan Quinn leads the NFL in that category.
We just saw Quinn’s aggression pay off in a big way. The Commanders were able to beat the Detroit Lions as 9.5-point road underdogs in part because their head coach gave them an edge:
Commanders failed on their first 4th down of the game. Since then:* 4th-and-3 conversion leads to TD in Q2* 4th-and-2 conversion leads to TD in Q3* 4th-and-2 conversion leads to TD in Q4
Jan. 18, 2025: The day “Take The Points” officially died.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) January 19, 2025
Those are three of the 15 touchdown drives the Commanders have scored this season while converting a fourth down along the way (hat tip to PHLY’s Zach Berman).
The Eagles must be prepared for Quinn to be aggressive.
The Eagles also need Sirianni to not play scared.
8 – Will The Linc be rocking?
Yes, absolutely.
Having been in the press box for the last two Eagles NFC Championship Games, I can tell you that there was a special energy in the building each time even prior to kickoff.
Commanders fans might have a relatively decent showing since this is their first NFCCG since 1991 and they had some surprisingly good representation in Detroit last weekend.
But the Eagles’ crowd figures to be a big boost for the home team.
The Eagles are 9-1 all-time in playoff games they’re favored by at least 5 points.
The current line of -6 ties 2004 as the biggest spread in favor of the Eagles for an NFC Title Game.
— Tucker Bagley (@TBagleySports) January 24, 2025
9 – Could Dallas Goedert’s presence actually be a pretty big deal?
Goedert is set to play despite missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to an ankle injury. He was full go on Friday.
To this point, Goedert has accounted for 40% of the Eagles’ playoff passing yardage. His 10 targets have resulted in eight catches for 103 yards (12.9 average) and one touchdown. Keep feeding him, and especially in the red zone. Only four teams have allowed more tight end touchdowns this season.
But Goedert’s receiving ability might not even be his most valuable contribution in this matchup. His presence as a run blocker is meaningful.
Via NFL Pro:
The Eagles have averaged 6.3 yards per designed run with Dallas Goedert on the field this season (including the playoffs), compared to 4.7 yards per designed run without Goedert.
With Goedert previously on injured reserve, Eagles backup tight ends Grant Calcaterra and C.J. Uzomah were pretty terrible as run blockers in the Week 16 loss to Washington.
Goedert could do a much better job of helping Barkley get going.
10 – How chippy will this game be?
Probably pretty chippy.
For starters, emotions are naturally riding high 1) in a division rivalry game 2) that’s a rubber match after the last meeting was already chippy and 3) there’s a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
There’s also some bulletin-board material on both sides.
For the Eagles, I’m sure they’ve seen Joe Whitt Jr.’s comments about the Commanders’ plan to hit Hurts like a running back if he runs. You can try to downplay it or say ‘What’s he supposed to say?’ But the Eagles don’t really need a totally logical reason to feel slighted. In their last NFC Championship Game appearance, they had taken offense to a pretty tame comment by George Kittle leading up to that matchup. Between Hurts getting knocked out of the last game and the Commanders trying to act all tough, I’m sure this Eagles offense is especially motivated to be the bully.
There’s also the C.J. Gardner-Johnson factor. I’m sure he’s itching for his own kind of revenge against the Commanders after getting ejected last time. His absence proved to be costly for the Eagles’ defense late in that game.
It feels like a good time to share this again.Eagles were dominating the Commanders, even after Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s ejection is what allowed Washington to win the game in Week 16. https://t.co/OMlZlTGnnx
— Anthony DiBona (@DiBonaNFL) January 22, 2025
For the Commanders, Sirianni gave Zach Ertz even more motivation for a revenge game against his former team by trash-talking the tight end in the immediate aftermath of Philly’s Week 16 loss to Washington.
Also, you just know Frankie Luvu could do something outside of the rules.
Frankie Luvu also was fined $16,883 for an illegal hip-drop tackle on Jahmyr Gibbs a few plays later. No penalty there either. So, $33,766 in fines for Luvu but no flags. https://t.co/RAwsgVCYCQ
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 25, 2025
11 – Can A.J. Brown really be kept quiet again?
Through two playoff games, A.J. Brown’s 10 targets have resulted in just 24 yards.
That’s hard to believe.
Even if not 100% healthy, he’s simply too good to be kept down like this for a prolonged stretch.
The Commanders’ defense offers a get-right opportunity.
With Pickett mostly throwing to him in Week 16, Brown had eight receptions for 97 yards and one touchdown. He also accounted for 68 more yards in the form of pass interference penalties drawn against Marshon Lattimore.
The Eagles’ passing attempts will likely be limited. But they’ve gotta get it to No. 11. Good things will happen.
