The Los Angeles Lakers host the Brooklyn Nets tonight and despite being -11 favorites, Kenny Ducey believes the best way to attack this game is by taking the Over. Find out why below!
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Jan 17, 2025 • 17:42 ET • 4 min read
The Los Angeles Lakers have fallen into a backslide with three losses in four games, but they’ll have a golden opportunity to build a miniature two-game winning streak against the lowly Brooklyn Nets on Friday.
I’ll focus on the continued success of the home side on offense in my Nets vs Lakers predictions, explaining why Brooklyn should have a rare edge on that side of the floor with its emphasis on interior scoring.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Friday, January 17.
Nets vs Lakers prediction
My best bet
Over 217.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Lakers’ recent surge in production offensively seems sustainable, with the team initially finding success against poor defenses but maintaining their gains in recent games. Yes, they’ve run into a rough patch with the recent losses and laid two eggs against the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat, but they also found life against the Miami Heat and Houston Rockets.
Currently, L.A. is 11th in efficiency rating on that end this month and will take one of the most evenly distributed shot charts in the league into this matchup against a Brooklyn Nets defense which has been the second-worst in basketball over the past 17 days.
Brooklyn has given up a wealth of looks at the rim, where it’s ranked in the bottom 10 of the league, and while it’s limited 3-point looks it has defended the arc at the third-worst clip.
L.A. has caught fire from these two areas, sitting in the top 10 of the league in shooting accuracy, and for the year owns the third-best field goal percentage at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass.
The same story can be laid out for this defense, however, which has struggled of late and has had a particularly arduous time defending the rim. Brooklyn’s lone strength has been its ability to convert shots from in close into points, and the Lakers are down in 29th in rim defense while allowing a ton of looks from that area to boot.
Brooklyn may have its fair share of injuries to deal with, missing its lead man on offense in Cam Thomas and facing the possibility of losing Cameron Johnson for this game, but it is healthy in the frontcourt and has proven to have the depth required to sustain a plan of attack inside.
While neither team has ranked very highly in Pace, the Nets have risen the ranks in recent weeks and should create a more up-tempo feel here as they look to make up for the shortcomings of their defense which should only grow more concerning against a trendy offense. I’m expecting both teams to continue forcing the issue inside, and points there should be easy to come by.
Nets vs Lakers same-game parlay
Over 217.5 Max Christie 10+ points
Day’Ron Sharpe Over 5.5 rebounds
As we look to attack the Nets inside, I’m going to skip over Anthony Davis due to the fact that his points total is juiced up and likely could be a bit of an issue with oddsmakers expecting a blowout win for the home team here.
Instead, Max Christie will be my target. The young wing has ranked just outside the top 40% at his position in shot attempts at the rim, also focusing on the 3-ball where the Nets have been just as abysmal on defense. He’s hit this number in four straight games as he continues to receive more playing time from JJ Redick, and has twice played 37 or more minutes in the last five games – getting at least 30 in all of them despite some blowouts.
Then, I think it’s hard to look past this number on Day’Ron Sharpe on the glass. He’s led the team in rebounding rate this month by a wide margin at a stunning 19%, collecting five or more in all but one of his eight games in just 20.8 minutes on average. If this one does turn into a blowout, he’ll only see more playing time, but I have confidence in him here considering the Nets have actually ranked considerably higher than the Lakers on the boards this month. He also shouldn’t have to fight Anthony Davis for rebounds given where he plays on the floor in addition to his spot on the second unit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nets vs Lakers odds
Nets vs Lakers live odds
Nets vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Brooklyn +11 | Los Angeles -11
- Moneyline: Brooklyn +425 | Los Angeles -575
- Over/Under: Over 217.5 | Under 217.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nets vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread moved to 12 rather quickly but has since leveled back at the opening number of 11 with just a momentary move to 10.5.
- The Lakers make up 58% of the tickets and 58% of the money wagered on the spread.
- The total took a nosedive to 217 upon opening, moving down again by a half point before settling around 217.5 on Friday afternoon.
- The Over has accounted for 77% of the total handle and 74% of the bets.
Nets vs Lakers trend
The Brooklyn Nets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 away games (+22.55 Units / 59% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Lakers.
How to watch Nets vs Lakers
Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California Date: Friday, 1-17-2025 Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET TV: YES, SPECSN, SN
Nets vs Lakers latest injuries
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