As we head through Week 16, the race for the No. 1 pick continues to thin out. Just six teams have three wins or fewer this season, and only four have a realistic chance to secure the top spot in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Las Vegas Raiders’ win over Jacksonville is the most substantial swing we have seen for the No. 1 pick since The Athletic began tracking the race in Week 14. Before kicking off the late window of Sunday’s games, Las Vegas had a 35 percent chance at the No. 1 pick. It now has a 1 percent chance following its win.
Not only are the Raiders effectively out of the race, but the victory put several other teams back in the running. The Raiders or Giants had an 88 percent chance at the top pick heading into Sunday. Now four teams have leap-frogged the Raiders in the draft order, including two that had less than 1 percent odds for the top pick after Sunday’s early slate.
That doesn’t include the Carolina Panthers, who beat the Arizona Cardinals in overtime for their fourth win. That put them out of the running for the first pick.
New York Giants (2-13)
Michael Penix Jr. impresses in Falcons’ 34-7 win vs. Giants: Takeaways
New York is the lone two-loss team left in the league. And the way the Giants are playing, it’s no surprise they remain in the top spot in our projections. Drew Lock threw two pick sixes in Sunday’s loss to the Falcons and Atlanta had its highest-scoring game since October in rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s starting debut. The Giants’ consistently poor quarterback play lessens the possibility of New York potentially pulling off a win in the next two weeks. The Giants are averaging just 11.8 points and 257.4 yards per game since releasing Daniel Jones in Week 10, both the lowest marks in the league over that span.
Remaining schedule: Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots (3-12)
The biggest winner from the Raiders’ win outside of New York is the Patriots. New England’s odds slipped from 10 percent to 6 percent with the Giants’ loss in the early slate. Those odds more than tripled after the Las Vegas victory. Four of the Patriots’ last six losses were by six points or fewer and New England could pull off a win in the next two weeks, especially after playing a competitive game against the Bills on Sunday. For now, though, the Patriots have a decent chance of either landing the top prospect in the 2025 draft or putting themselves in prime position for a trade-back.
Remaining schedule: Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
How Raiders’ 19-14 win over Jaguars affects 2025 NFL Draft order: Takeaways
Jacksonville has quite literally found victory in the jaws of defeat. Just a few hours before kickoff, the Jaguars had less than a 1 percent chance of landing the top pick. After failing to mount a late-game comeback against Las Vegas, Jacksonville was propelled to the third-best odds for the top pick. These odds are a bit misleading, to be fair. Any chance Jacksonville has to secure its third No. 1 pick in five years lies in its Week 17 game against the Tennessee Titans.
Remaining schedule: Tennessee Titans, at Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans (3-12)
Jonathan Taylor piles up 3 TDs in Colts’ 38-30 win vs. Titans: Takeaways
The Indianapolis Colts on Sunday gave the Titans their fourth straight loss and sixth in their last seven games. Tennessee has lingered toward the back of the No. 1 pick race as one of the few three-win teams with a fractional chance at the top spot. Those odds spiked after the Raiders’ win, but any real chance Tennessee has at the top pick comes down to next week’s game at Jacksonville.
Remaining schedule: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Joe Burrow dazzles as Bengals earn 24-6 win vs. Browns: Takeaways
Cleveland is the only other team with odds above 1 percent. The Browns also are one of the more volatile teams in this conversation. Myles Garrett on Sunday became the youngest player to hit 100 career sacks, Jerry Jeudy is a 1,000-yard receiver and David Njoku returned from injury. Even if it received the help necessary to even the playing field, there is a decent chance Cleveland finds a way to win a game over the next two weeks to take itself out of the running.
Remaining schedule: Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens
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(Photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
